Break The Bookies: Thanksgiving Day Special

Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday of the year. You can watch football all day, start drinking before noon, eat as much as you want, spend time with family, take a nap, and most importantly… you get to make money while doing all these things.

This has to be one of the least interesting Thanksgiving Day schedules in recent history, but we’re still going to do our best to break the bookies and come out on top.


Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons (+13.5) @ New Orleans Saints

When these two teams met in week 3, we saw an incredible shootout that New Orleans won in OT 43-37. The Saints are the hottest team in football right now and Vegas is tired of losing money when they blow teams out and cover massive spreads. I think this line should be closer to (+8.5), but I understand why Vegas made it so high. I think there’s just too much parity in the NFL to write this game off as blowout before it starts.


Over/Under: Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions 1H (under 21.5)

I know Matthew Stafford has lit up the scoreboard on Thanksgiving plenty of times, but I think the Bears gameplan will help keep that in check. The Bears are coming off one of the shortest turnaround times in NFL history (~85 hours) and I think their gameplan will be to control the clock by running the ball, playing great defense, and trying to get out of Detroit as fast as they can.

Add in the fact that backup QB Chase Daniel is starting, the Bears have a top 5 defense, Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones are out, and that this is an important divisional matchup for both teams…  I think we will be seeing three-and-outs and FGs until the Lions get a chance to make some adjustments at the half.


Parlay: Chicago Bears (-163) and Dallas Cowboys (-320) (+112)

Betting on Chase Daniel and the Cowboys is a scary thought, but I’m pretty confident in this parlay. Matthew Stafford is without his two biggest weapons, Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones, and the Cowboys D will be causing problems for Colt McCoy all day.


Prop Bets:

Bears/Lions 1st Score anything other than a TD (+110) 

This bet goes along with the 1H under, I think there are going to be lots of three-and-outs, and the defenses are going to “bend but won’t break”.


Cowboys Total Team Sacks OVER 2.5 (-150)

Another bet that matches my prediction the Cowboys D will be causing problems for Colt McCoy all day.


Drew Brees total TD pass OVER 2.5 (-150)

Drew Brees is unstoppable at home and the Saints have averaged 48 points over their last three games. While I expect them to come down to earth eventually, I think the only risk associated with this bet is if Kamara and Ingram run for 2-3 TDs instead of catching them.


Jordan Reed pass receptions OVER 4.5 (-110)

The last 3 starting TEs to face the Cowboys were Jonnu Smith, Zach Ertz, and Austin Hooper. Of course Zach Ertz is a bit of an outlier, but over the last three weeks TEs vs the Cowboys have been averaging: 10 targets / 8 receptions / 76 yards. I think Reed has a great matchup here and the Redskins will try and design short, quick throws to TEs and RBs to give Colt Mccoy some confidence.


 

Proof of putting my money where my mouth is:

Screen Shot 2018-11-22 at 1.25.47 AM

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