McBeamers NBA DFS 1.16

Hi everyone! I spent the weekend researching/playing the DraftKings NFL slate, I had a huge weekend thanks to stacking the Steelers-Jaguars game + Patriot RBs. Antonio Brown at 7% ownership was hilarious, thanks to the media for overplaying his calf injury.


Follow me on twitter @drillacape, I’ll be answering questions all day + have 2 free lineups for everyone around 6:30ET (one DK lineup, one FD lineup).


I didn’t post any content yesterday, but I threw in a $12 single entry for NBA and won $45 (42nd out of 980)

Lineup (266.50): L. Williams > R. Hood > K. Durant > D. Green > C. Capela > T. Wallace > S. Labissiere > A. Jefferson


We have a small 4 game slate tonight. The Mavericks, the Magic, and the Suns are all playing so it might not be the most entertaining basketball, but there are still some good fantasy options out there.


•Player Name > FD salary > DK salary > 5x value > CASH/GPP/BOTH/FADE


Minnesota Timberwolves (113) @ Orlando Magic (105)


Jimmy Butler > 9400 > 9200 > 46 > PLAY

-this is the highest his salary has been all season, assist numbers are down since Teague’s return, number of shot attempts have dropped every game since Teague’s return

-Magic are terrible defending at the rim (25th) and terrible against the 3-point shot (20th), I love his matchup my only concern will be trying to fit his salary into a lineup


•Jeff Teague > 6900 > 6400 > 32 > GPP

-minutes have been all over the place since his return (25,32,28), but I have him projected about 33 minutes tonight

-one of the most inconsistent players the first half of the year, would have a huge 50-point game then three 20-pointers in a row

-will be interesting to see how he plays this game, against Portland he was attacking the basket and drew 10 free throw attempts (most this season) if he continues to attack and put up shots, he could be in for a huge night vs. the weak Magic D


•Andrew Wiggins > 6500 > 6100 > 31 > PLAY

-plays well against the Magic, above 35 points on DK every time they’ve played

-probably the only player to benefit from Teague’s return, great at attacking the hoop, Teague will help be able to get him the ball

-shooting way more mid-range and 3-pt jump shots this year compared to previous years


•Gorgui Dieng > 3700 on both sites > 18 > GPP

-its tough to trust a guy like Dieng, but on a 4-game slate he’s the type of player that could end up being in the winning lineup

-he would be the biggest beneficiary of a blowout, has seen about 18 minutes per game, up to 25 minutes whenever the Twolves are winning big

-above 22 points on DK 3 out of his last 5 games, doesn’t have a crazy ceiling (35)  but is a good salary saver for more expensive stars



•Bismack Biyombo > 6400 > 5600 > 28 > PLAY

-huge 50-point game last time out, DO NOT expect another game this big, he took the most shot attempts this season + he got off to an extremely hot start offensively

-doesn’t have great upside because he’s weak offensively. Will probably be matched up with Taj Gibson or KAT, which means he will have an advantage defensively and on the boards

-above 28 6 out his last 9 games on DK, you have to hope for a double-double if you play him tonight


•FADE the rest of the team

-very low implied total, the only position the Twolves are weak at is PF/C, Biyombo is probably the only guy I would consider playing


New Orleans Pelicans (105) @ Boston Celtics (109)


Demarcus Cousins > 11200 > 10500 > 53 > CASH

-my biggest concern whenever playing Boogie is always Anthony Davis’ matcup, today Cousins will be covering Aron Baynes while AD will be covering Al Horford

-Cousins has a much better matchup, so I’m comfortable fading AD

-above 54: 5 out of the last 8 games, even the other 3 games were above 40 points on DK

-very safe cash play, a little bit riskier in tournaments since he has to score 53 just for value, plus you’d probably be paying down somewhere else


Jrue Holiday > 7500 > 6700 > 34 > CASH

-huge performances in the last 2 games: 47, 53

-he was the biggest beneficiary of AD sitting out the last 2 games

-his upside takes a big hit with AD returning, but he can still easily reach 34 and has done it multiple times this season

-plays BIG minutes, usually mid-30s but has played over 43 twice in the last week

-even if he doesn’t have a huge night scoring he will be on the court long enough to at least have the chance to make an impact/stuff the stat sheet



•Kyrie Irving > 8200 > 8500 > 44 > PLAY

-has been struggling lately, only been above 44 1 out of his last 8 games

-probably the PG with the best matchup on tonight’s slate, he’s the only one with 60-point potential

-scored 49 real points vs. Pelicans last season, one of his best performances of the year

-Pelicans are bad vs. mid-range and 3-point jump shots, Kyrie is by far the best shooter on the Celtics


•FADE the rest of the team

-its tough to fade the rest of the Celtics, but none of the players salaries are tempting enough to take a chance on. Brown/Tatum are both in the 6k price range and steal value from each other, Marcus Smart is a consistent fantasy player (~25) but has almost no upside. Baynes and Horford are interesting tournament plays, I’ll do some more research throughout the day but I know Horford has been struggling lately.


Dallas Mavericks (103) @ Denver Nuggets (108)


For some reason I really like this game, I have a gut feeling this might be the game to stack tonight.

•Dennis Smith Jr. > 6500 > 6300 > 32 > PLAY

-has been above 30 points on DK 7 of his last 8 games

-Nuggets rank 22nd vs. PG, great matchup for a guy who’s been hot lately

-consistently averages a 25% usage rate, has been putting up 15 shots a game, stuffs the stat sheet with rebounds, assists, and steals

-minutes have been sporadic lately, 26-24-33-31-39: however, his coach said that he’s been earning his minutes lately. I would expect around 35 and maybe up to 40 if he’s playing well


•Yogi Ferrell > 5300 > 4500 > 23 > PLAY

– JJ Barea is OUT

-he will be the biggest beneficiary of JJ sitting out

-has been above 30 points on DK his last 3 games

-wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the lock of the slate tonight, I would expect him to be in at least 50% of lineups


•Dirk Nowitzki > 5000 > 4900 > 24 > CASH

-great matchup, especially if the Nuggets decide to play small again

-pretty consistent scorer, even if he has a terrible night it’ll probably be around 15 points because nobody else on the Mavs can shoot

-I like when his salary is under 5000, it was around 5200 for a couple weeks, but at 4900 I think he’s got a good chance to hit value



Gary Harris > 6500 > 6000 > 30 > PLAY

-sat out the last game, he’s one of my favorite tournament plays because Jamal Murray has been struggling lately

-great 3-point shooter, good matchup vs. DAL, Murray will probably be matched up with DSJ and Harris will be matched up with Wesley Matthews

-has been above 28 on DK his last 4 games


•Mason Plumlee > 4800 > 4300 > 22 > GPP

-been above 21 on DK 6 out of his last 7 games

-Dallas has no depth on the second unit, will probably match up with Kleber or Mejri

-has averaged about 8 rebounds/game the last month

-good defender, had a 5-block game earlier in the season

-only takes about 5 shots a game, maybe pray for a double-double or easy foul shots

-I would say he’s underpriced on DK based on his def/reb potential


Phoenix Suns (0) @ Portland TrailBlazers (0)


•Devin Booker > 7800 > 8000 > PLAY

-TJ Warren (Q), Marquese Chriss (D)

-I would definitely start him if both Warren and Chriss are out, by far the best scorer on the team and loves to throw up shots from anywhere on the court, watch out if he gets hot


•Tyson Chandler > 4800 > 4500 > 23 > GPP

-Chandler is projected to get the start at Center, if Warren is out he will probably see his biggest boost in usage

-great rebounder, been above 10 in almost every game the last month

-RARELY gets to 10 real points, but could be in for a bigger role with all the injuries


REST OF THE TEAM

-its tough to pick anybody without any news updates

-Josh Jackson is 4800 on DK, he would need about 24 for value he could get there, but he’s been very inconsistent this year

-Tyler Ulis is 4000 on DK, he was a decent tournament option when his salary was around 3600, but it’s tough for him to put up 20 points



•TrailBlazers: FADE the entire team

-the salaries still seem inflated from Dame’s injury to me

-Dame is 9300 on DK, he has a 60-point ceiling but I don’t know if I can take the chance on him till I know he’s 100%

-Mccollum is overpriced, played incredible during Dame’s injury, but salary hasn’t readjusted

-Aminu’s price is inflated after big performance, Evan Turner returning kills any value Aminu had before


•Quick Announcement:

My new microphone should be in the mail tomorrow, I think the shipment was delayed over the holiday weekend.

I should be back with podcasts on Wednesday, it’s much easier to throw all this info in a 15 minute podcast!


*FREE LINEUP SUGGESTIONS*

DraftKings:

J. Holiday > J. Butler > A. Wiggins > M .Plumlee > A. Horford > Y. Ferrell > T. Lyles > D. Smith Jr.

FanDuel:

D. Smith Jr. > Y. Ferrell > J. Holiday > A. Wiggins > J. Butler > J. Simmons > D. Nowitzki > D. Powell > D. Cousins


-I’m looking into Al Horford’s matchup, I feel like he will hit value at 7400 on DK, but there could be better value plays out there

-Trey Lyles has been a very safe play lately, I don’t love stacking him and Plumlee, but the Mavs are terrible vs. big men

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